IT之家 5 月 25 日消息,盖茨笔记发布了“Reddit 用户问我的最棒的问题 ”。下面是文章内容:
Yesterday I did my 10th Ask Me Anything on Reddit. I love doing AMAs because the Reddit crowd as a whole is well-informed, Redditors don’t pull any punches, and good questions usually get voted up toward the top. This year I spent an hour taking questions about pandemic prevention, climate change, farmland, my cell phone, and much more. I wish I’d had time to answer even more.
昨天(文章发布于 5 月 21 日),我在 Reddit 上完成了第 10 次“问我任何事”(AMA)在线问答。我很喜欢 AMA 活动,因为 Reddit 的用户群体知识广博,问题犀利,而且好的问题通常会被置顶。今年,我花了一个小时回答了关于大流行病预防、气候变化、农田、我的手机等问题。我本希望有时间来回答更多的问题。
Here’s a transcript of my favorite questions and my answers:
以下摘录了一些我最喜欢的问题以及我的回答:
Redditor’s question: In the Netflix documentary series, one thing that was quite remarkable to me was how you and your team were able to design a nuclear reactor that produces uses already nuclear waste as a fuel. However this design was never implemented due to political reasons. My question is: Given that this technology has the potential to be the most-effective green energy source and have a key role in reversing climate change, what’s the current status on the project? Is it a likely possibility that this nuclear reactor will be built in the upcoming years? If so, do you plan on building in China or would you consider building such a project on US soil? Thanks.
Reddit 用户的问题:在网飞(Netflix)的系列纪录片中,有一幕让我印象深刻,那就是你和你的团队如何利用已产生的核废料作为燃料,设计出一个核反应堆。但是由于一些政治原因,这一设计从未付诸实施。我的问题是:鉴于这项技术有潜力成为最有效的绿色能源,并在扭转气候变化方面发挥关键作用,该项目目前处于何种状态?这个核反应堆是否有可能在未来几年内建成?如果是这样,你们打算在中国建造,还是考虑在美国本土实施这一项目?谢谢。
My answer: We are still working on this. At first the project was a US-China joint venture but the US cancelled that. So now we are building the demo reactor in Wyoming where a coal plant is closing. It is very promising in terms of the cost and safety advances. If things go well a lot of these reactors will help solve climate change. Eventually we want reactors globally but the first ones will be in the US even though competing with natural gas electricity is hard here.
我的回答:我们仍在继续推进这一项目。起初,该项目是美中合资的,但美国方面取消了这个项目。因此现在,我们正在怀俄明州一个正在关闭的煤厂建造示范反应堆。就成本和安全性取得的进展而言,该反应堆前景光明。如果进展顺利,许多反应堆共同发挥作用将有助于解决气候变化问题。最终,我们希望将反应堆推广至全球,但首批反应堆将在美国建造,尽管在这里会面临与天然气发电的激烈竞争。
Do you have a medical degree? Then why are you getting involved in medicine? Why should your medical opinion matter?
你有医学学位吗?你为什么要涉足医学问题?为什么你的医学观点很重要?
The Foundation has a lot of Medical experts. It takes a huge range of skills to do things like Malaria eradication or Covid vaccines and therapeutics. I listen to the experts on specific medical advice. The system to prevent pandemics will require a lot more than just doctors so I wrote a book to start the discussion of what it should look like.
盖茨基金会有很多医学专家。诸如根除疟疾或研发新冠疫苗和治疗方法等此类工作需要各个领域的大量专业技能。我听取专家们的具体医疗建议。一个大流行病预防体系需要的不单单是医生,因此,我写了一本书来发起讨论,研究这个体系应该是什么样子。
How do you see climate change happening in next 10-20 years? And how are we doing as a civilization to counter that? What's our biggest challenge?
你如何看待未来 10-20 年内的气候变化?我们的文明该如何应对气候变化?我们面临的最大挑战是什么?
The key is to be able to make things like electricity, steel, cement and meat without any emissions but at a cost equal or lower than today's cost. My efforts at Breakthrough Energy is to fund the innovators and help them scale up. I am optimistic because the progress on innovation in the last 3 years with the companies that have been funded is going very well.
关键在于,我们能够以与现在相同或更低的成本制造出电力、钢铁、水泥和肉类等产品,同时保证不产生任何碳排放。我在“突破能源”所做的工作就是资助创新者,并帮助他们扩大规模。我很乐观,因为在过去三年里,获得资助的公司在创新方面的进展非常顺利。
Why did you pressure vaccine researchers not to open source the MRNA covid vaccines as was originally planned? Dont you think that wider access to this information would have increased access to vaccines at a critical time?
你为什么向疫苗研究人员施压,不让他们按原计划公开 MRNA 新冠疫苗的信息?你难道不认为在这样的关键时刻,更广泛地获取这些信息会增加疫苗的可及性吗?
Our Foundation is funding the low cost vaccine manufacturers to do mRNA vaccines. They used other platforms for pandemic vaccines but in the future we will make sure they can do mRNA as well. We are funding mRNA to be used for HIV and Malaria. All the steps to get Covid vaccines out were done by the summer of 2020 and it lead to huge scaling up to put us in the oversupply situation we are in today. With the right technologies we can do it a lot faster and more equitably in the future.
我们基金会正在资助低成本疫苗厂商生产 mRNA 疫苗。以前,他们使用其他平台生产新冠疫苗,但在未来,我们将确保他们也能生产 mRNA 疫苗。我们正在资助 mRNA 技术用于治疗艾滋病和疟疾。所有新冠疫苗的研发步骤都是在 2020 年秋天之前完成的,这促使了疫苗的大规模生产,使我们如今处于疫苗过剩、供过于求的局面。有了正确的技术,我们就可以在未来更快、更公平地研发疫苗。
How did you manage with stress during all of your class-action lawsuits of the 1990s and 2000s?
在 20 世纪 90 年代和 21 世纪初的一系列集体诉讼事件中,你是如何应对压力的?
Although those lawsuits were tough I have been super lucky in my life and I had a good team of people working with me to help get them settled and move ahead.
虽然那些诉讼很艰难,但我在生活中超级幸运,我拥有一个很好的团队与我一起工作,帮助我解决问题,继续前进。
Bill, thank you for taking the time. Big fan of both your work at Microsoft, Bill and Melinda Gates foundation and Berkshire Hathaway. I want to ask you about how most philanthropists think about RETURN ON INVESTMENT OF CHARITY. Most (billionaire) people doesn't seem to put much effort on it and just pick whatever subject they're most interested. As far as I understand, you option for epidemiology and sanitation was a diligent choice, because you think that money and a drive for business gives the most bang for the buck (some newspapers cover your fierce negotiation position to get us the vaccines, something that you are good at and I am thankful for). My question is. Do you think that most philanthropists are as diligent on their philanthropy as they were when they made their wealth? What are good themes where a drive for business can help the most?
比尔,感谢你抽出时间回答问题。我很欣赏你在微软、比尔及梅琳达・盖茨基金会以及伯克希尔・哈撒韦公司所作的工作。我想请问,大多数慈善家如何看待慈善事业的投资回报率?大多数(亿万富翁)似乎并没有在这上面花费太多精力,只是选择了他们最感兴趣的领域。据我所知,你对流行病学和卫生的资助是一个高投入的选择,因为你认为金钱和商业投入会带来最物超所值的结果(一些报纸和媒体报道了你为给我们争取疫苗而采取的激烈的谈判立场,这是你所擅长的,我对此表示感谢)。我的问题是:你认为大多数慈善家在慈善事业上是否仍像他们创造财富时那样投入?哪些主题商业动力可以提供最大的助力?
I was stunned when I found out that a life could be saved for under $1000. This came when I read about what kids die of including the 1993 World Development report. So our Foundation (supported by Warren Buffett's incredible generosity) prioritized this. The success of our work in Global Health is well beyond what I would have expected. I do work with other philanthropists a lot including through the Giving Pledge where they can learn and be encouraged to be bold.
当我发现,付出不到 1000 美元就可以挽救一个人的生命时,我深受震撼。这是我从包括 1993 年世界发展报告等材料中读到儿童死亡的原因时了解到的。因此,我们的基金会(获得了沃伦・巴菲特极大的慷慨支持)将这一点作为了优先考虑事项。我们在全球健康领域工作的成功远远超出了我的预期。我的确经常与其他慈善家合作,包括通过“捐赠誓言”的活动。这一捐赠承诺组织帮助人们了解并鼓励他们大胆捐赠财富。
Mr. Gates, What are your thoughts on indoor farming?
盖茨先生,你如何看待室内农业?
For some high value crops it can work. For the cereal crops like wheat, rice and maize it is unlikely to ever be economic. We can improve seeds for all crops a lot to increase productivity - this is a key investment to help reduce the problems caused by climate change.
对于一些高价值的作物,室内农业是可行的。对于小麦、水稻和玉米等谷类作物来说,这种做法不够经济实惠。我们可以对所有作物的种子进行大幅改良,以提高产量 —— 这是一项关键的投资,有助于减少气候变化引发的问题。
Can you a still jump over a chair from a standing start?
你还能从站立姿势起跳,跳过椅子吗?
A smaller chair than I could do at age 30... Pretty small now. I try to stay fit playing a lot of tennis.
相比我 30 岁时能跳过的椅子,我现在能跳过的椅子要小一点... 小得多。我现在靠常打网球来努力保持身材。
Took 4 doses of vaccine, 5G reception still bad. Any tips?
You need 5th one, with 4 you'll only get LTE at most
我接种了 4 剂疫苗,但 5G 接收信号仍然不好。有什么建议吗?
你需要接种第 5 剂疫苗,只接种 4 剂你最多只能使用 4G 网(LTE)。
I must be wearing the wrong kind of tin foil hat because it doesn't work for me.
我一定是戴错了锡箔帽,因为它对我不起作用。
(译者注:锡箔帽(tin foil hat)是一种用铝箔纸制作的帽子,佩戴这种帽子的人们相信这能够帮助他们免受脑控、电磁场、读心术和精神控制的影响。科学界相信这是患有被害妄想等精神疾病和受到伪科学的误导。这个词多用作指代阴谋论者。)
Hello Mr. Gates, huge fan of your work. What advice would you give young people who want to make a positive impact on this world? Greetings from Honduras.
你好,盖茨先生,我是你的忠实粉丝。你会给那些想要对这个世界产生积极影响的年轻人什么建议?来自洪都拉斯的问候。
The ideal thing is to read a lot and hopefully find a skill you enjoy that can have impact. For some that means being great at science or engineering. For some it means being a great communicator or politician. For some it means being a nurse or a doctor. The opportunity to learn is better today than ever before.
理想的做法是大量阅读,希望能够找到一种你喜欢、且能产生影响的技能。对一些人来说,这意味着在科学或工程领域有所擅长。对有些人来说,这意味着成为一位善于沟通的人或伟大的政治家。对有些人来说,这意味着成为一名护士或医生。现在,学习的机会比以往任何时候都要更多更好。
What is the future of nuclear power?
核能的前景如何?
There is nuclear fission. If it can solve the cost, safety and waste concerns it can make a massive contribution to solving climate change. I am biased because I have been investing over a billion in this starting over a decade ago. Also promising is nuclear fusion. It is less clear if we will succeed but it has less safety and waste issues if it works. So I am hopeful nuclear will improve and be a huge help for climate.
现在已有核裂变技术。如果能解决其成本、安全和废料问题,该技术可以为解决气候变化做出巨大贡献。我之所以偏爱它,是因为十年来,我已经为此投资了超过 10 亿美元。核聚变也很有前景。目前还太不清楚我们是否会成功,但如果能够成功,核安全性和废料问题就会更少。因此,我对核能技术的进步充满希望,并相信核能能够对气候变化起到巨大的帮助。
What's the one thing you've bought that's brought you the most joy?
你买过的哪一样东西给你带来了最大的快乐?
If we do succeed in polio eradication that will be super joyful. It has taken a lot of patience and great strategy to get close to success. The thing that has succeeded the best so far is funding vaccines for poor countries through GAVI. I do like burgers, nice tennis racquets and all the great streaming services but nothing too unique.
如果我们真的能够成功根除脊髓灰质炎,那将使我极其开心。接近实现该目标需要大量的耐心和伟大的战略。到目前为止,最成功的事情就是通过全球疫苗免疫联盟(GAVI)为贫困国家提供疫苗资助。我确实喜欢汉堡、漂亮的网球拍和所有超棒的流媒体服务,但没有哪一个称得上最爱。
Your top 5 books of all time?
看过的所有书中,你最喜欢哪 5 本?
Two of Smil's latest Grand Transitions and How the World Really Works are great. Pinker has a lot of great books including The Better Angels of our Nature. I am just finishing the Coddling of the American Mind which was good. Ezra Klein's book on Polarization is good. Of course fiction books are more fun like Heart or A Gentleman in Moscow or All the Light you cannot see...
斯米尔的两本最新著作《大转变:现代世界是如何形成的》和《世界是如何真正运作的》(中文名暂译)都很棒。平克有很多好书,包括《我们本性中更好的天使:为什么暴力已经衰落》。我刚刚读完《娇惯的心灵:“钢铁是怎么没有炼成的》,这本书很不错。埃兹拉・克莱因的《我们为什么会两极分化》一书也不错。当然,小说类书籍更有趣,比如《心》或《莫斯科绅士》或《所有我们看不见的光》...
How are you guys preventing further strain mutations and vaccine adaptability of viruses for the "no more pandemics" goal?
为实现“不再有大流行病”的目标,你们如何阻止病毒的进一步变异以及解决疫苗适应性问题?
We can make vaccines that have 3 additional things: broad coverage, long duration and infection blocking. These need to be R&D priorities to prevent pandemics but they will also be super helpful for all sorts of diseases.
我们可以制造出具有三种额外特性的疫苗:覆盖范围广、保护时间长和有效阻断感染。这些需要成为预防大流行病的研发重点,但同时它们对预防各种疾病也会非常有帮助。
Why is the COVID-19 model behaving very differently in America as compared to other countries? With state-of-the-art vaccines and close to 70% of people fully vaccinated, the cases are always rising after dipping for a few days. Looking at the statistics of the number of people catching COVID and the number of people dying due to it, seemed like this was to end by January / February. The model is quite weird.
为什么美国的新冠模型与其他国家差别很大?美国有着最先进的疫苗和接近 70% 的疫苗完全接种率,感染病例却总是在几天的短暂下降后回升。从感染新冠和因其死亡的人数统计来看,似乎大流行应在 1 月或是 2 月就会结束。这一模型相当奇怪。
The new variants come along and evade immunity from vaccination and infection. Also immunity wanes fairly quickly in the elderly. When the cases are high people do change their behavior and when they are low they go back to normal behavior. So you get huge ups and downs in the case rate driven by seasons, variants and people's behavior. Fortunately Omicron is less fatal than previous variants.
新的病毒变种出现,同时发生免疫逃逸(译者注:指人们失去疫苗接种和感染后获得的免疫力)。此外,老年人的免疫力下降得相当快。当感染病例较多时,人们确实改变了他们的行为,而当病例数较少时,他们又回归常态。因此,受季节、病毒变种和人们行为的影响,感染率会有巨大的起伏。幸运的是,奥密克戎与此前的变种相比没有那么致命。
Which developing countries are you most optimistic about?
你最为看好哪些发展中国家?
Some of the so called LMIC (Low Middle Income) countries have huge promise - Vietnam, India, Pakistan, Indonesia. In Africa it is important for Kenya, Tanzania, Nigeria and Ethiopia to succeed. Ethiopia was doing well until the civil unrest so hopefully they can get past that. Some of the smaller countries are doing well but we need the big ones to also do well.
一些所谓的中低收入国家有着光明的前景 —— 比如越南、印度、巴基斯和印度尼西亚。在非洲,肯尼亚、坦桑尼亚、尼日利亚和埃塞俄比亚的成功也至关重要。埃塞俄比亚在发生内乱之前一直做得很好,我希望他们能够渡过难关。一些小国做得很好,但我们需要那些大国也表现良好。
What happened with the Oxford vaccine? Why wasn't it open source so that all countries could make it? I am so sad over how slow the vaccination in third world countries has been.
牛津 / 阿斯利康新冠疫苗发生了什么问题?为什么不公开疫苗的信息,让所有国家都能生产?我对第三世界国家疫苗接种工作进展缓慢感到非常难过。
The world did not get the vaccines out in an equitable way. Places like India did well because the Gates Foundation, Serum and the Government of India worked together to make 1.4B doses of the Astra Zeneca vaccines. It was a tragedy that old people in countries like South Africa got vaccines after young people in other countries. My book talks about how we can do better next time. Today there is plenty of vaccine but still the distribution and demand is holding back coverage.
世界并没有以一种公平的方式获得疫苗。像印度这样的国家做得很好,因为有盖茨基金会、印度血清研究所和印度政府的共同努力,生产了 14 亿剂阿斯利康疫苗。而南非等国的老人在其他国家的年轻人接种之后才获得疫苗,这是一场悲剧。我的书中谈到了下次我们如何能做得更好。现在已有大量的疫苗,但其分发和需求问题仍在阻碍着疫苗的普及。
What are the biggest innovations in global and public health you expect to see in the next 5-10 years?
未来的 5-10 年里,在全球健康和公共卫生领域,你期望看到的最大创新是什么?
We are gaining understanding of malnutrition. Solving this would be huge for the 40% of kids in Africa who never fully develop their brains or bodies. We still need to prevent and cure HIV. We need to eradicate Malaria (which will take decades). We are close to eradicating polio. Other areas like better contraception or understanding and preventing pre-term birth and still births show promise.
我们正在逐渐了解营养不良的问题。解决这个问题对于非洲 40% 的儿童来说意义重大,因为他们的大脑和身体从未发育完全。我们仍然需要预防和治愈艾滋病。我们需要根除疟疾(这将需要几十年时间)。我们已经接近于根除脊髓灰质炎。其他领域,如更好的避孕措施或研究和预防早产和死产,也显露出光明前景。。
Why do you think the world was utterly unprepared for Covid?
为什么你认为世界对新冠大流行完全没有准备?
Infectious disease in rich countries isn't the big problem it used to be. For things like fire and earthquakes we have small ones to remind us of the problem. A pandemic that gets into Europe or the US only comes along rarely so it is easy to not practice and not have dedicated resources. A few countries like Australia did a better job and have 10% of the deaths of most rich countries.
传染性疾病在富裕国家已经不像过去那样是个大问题了。而像火灾和地震这样的事情,也时常有小规模的爆发来提醒我们注意。欧洲或美国经历的大流行病很少,所以它们很容易缺乏实践,也没有专门的应对资源。少数国家如澳大利亚做得比较好,该国的新冠死亡人数仅占最富裕国家死亡人数的 10%。
I was in the 2nd cohort for the Gates Millennium scholarship.